Ep. 218 - Financial Advisor Woes and 7 Essential Year-End Planning Techniques

  📍 📍 Hello, this is Gabriel Shahin certified financial planner and your host of more knowledge, more wealth here on every weekend talking about all important topics of personal finance. My job is to go over the knowledge you need to increase your wealth. Now to the listener, you can always reach out to myself or any one of our colleagues here at Falcon Wealth Planning.

Our phone number is 855 963 2526. That's 855 96 Falcon. Like the bird or visit our website at falconwealthplanning. com. That's Falcon WP. com for short where you can get this episode or any one of our previous episodes as well. And you could join us on I heart radio, Spotify and podcast where you could get all the highlights of this and our knowledge center on our website goes over our YouTube channel that has so many helpful strategies and information for you.

Now I'm the president of Falcon Wealth Planning. We are a fee only non commissioned True fiduciary folks where we talk about all aspects of personal finance. It could be as something as simple as where you are today, how retirement looks like, talk about taxes, estate planning, insurance investments. And again, you name it, whatever's on your mind, we go over folks and we're offering.

One to two meetings, one to two hours of our time, a free financial assessment to help relate this show to your specific situation. Folks, give us a call. We'd love to help. We've got offices all over. It doesn't matter where you are. Our phone number is 855 963 2526. That's 855. 96 Falcon, like the bird, where we can help answer those questions that you have folks.

And I wanted to go over with you, it's kind of getting some headline a little bit, but on March or excuse me, March, uh, but happy new year, by the way, I'm already thinking about March. So happy 2024. Uh, I want to talk to you about something that came out on December 19th. Okay. Okay. By gentlemen, by the name of Harry Dent, not Harvey Dent from Batman, but Harry.

Dent. Okay. So this article was the U S economist. This U S economist predicts 2024 will bring the biggest crash of our lifetime. And I remember getting a whole bunch of information on this. I actually did a YouTube snippet of this pretty much blasting this person. So what I'm going to do right now is I'm going to go over with you some of the items from that YouTube clip, because that really had some really good, uh, uh, insights there.

So this gentleman, by the name of Harry Dent. Um, it's very interesting here because he is highlighting the fact that, uh, on his first book he wrote in 1989 called The Power of Predictions, how great he is at predicting things. I thought that was quite interesting. Uh, so the great boom ahead was his next book in 1993.

The irony is in 1994, the market, uh, dropped, uh, let's continue this conversation of the roaring two thousands. Okay. How is it going to be amazing? All right. Now, the irony is. 2020 and he was written in 1998 by I say, 2020, 2021 and 2022 all negative years in the stock market. Those first three years, if you put a hundred grand, you would have had less than 60, 000 in the S and P 500.

I mean, it's crazy. This guy's been talking about the roaring 2000s up ahead. Then 2008 happened. Heck, over 10 years, if you put in 100, 000, after 10 years, you would only have 90, 000. Think about that. So your million dollars is only 900, 000 after 10 years. That doesn't sound roaring to me, does it, Harry? Ugh.

Let's continue the conversation. He has a book in 2009 saying, The Great Depression Ahead. Oh, okay. Um, maybe he was talking about 2008, uh, 'cause the bottom of the market was in March of 2009. No, he wrote it in 2009. Uh, so, you know, he wasn't done with it by March. But the point is, what are you talking about?

The market did fantastic in 2009 and almost a 30% return. 2010 was good. 2011 was good, 2012, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17. What? Okay, so let's say he got it wrong, right? 2009, he says, the Great Depression ahead. 2011, he says, the Great Crash ahead. Well, like I just said, that didn't happen either. Uh, then in 2014, the Democratic cliff.

How to survive or prosper during the Great Deflation. That didn't happen again. The sale of a lifetime coming up in 2016. The Great Bubble Bust. Man, can this person be any more wrong? It's insane to me how this person is consistently getting it wrong. Then, in 2017, he talks about the zero hour, the greatest political and financial upheave in modern history.

What is this person? It's like, yeah, a broken clock is right twice a day, right? If it's stuck at 5. 30, it's gonna be 5. 30 p. m. and a. m. I get that. This person is wrong always. I've never seen somebody S with so much misinformation in my life that is just consistently bad, consistently wrong, literally, a coin is infinite.

If you flip a coin, the market's gonna go up or down. It's infinite times better than this person. I actually, Harry, if you're listening to this, I wanna interview on this show. Okay? I'll have my people talk to your people. Now, quite frankly, your people's infinite time is better than my people, and here's why.

I mean, you're not charismatic, you obviously have no knowledge, no information, you predict things absolutely wrong, but you still find a way to weasel your way into box business, CNN, CNBC, where people are listening to you, you're writing articles, they're quoting you, it's insane to me that you still are writing.

I want to interview you, and hey, maybe you'll sell a couple books in the process, right? God bless you. And you know what, people should buy your book. And I want to interview you, even though I'm calling you absolutely wrong in everything you've ever done. I just want to know how your mind is clicking here.

I want to see how the wheel is moving in your mind. Because if I can understand what you're thinking, I'll reverse engineer that to say that is so wrong. I need to think opposite of every logic this human being is actually thinking. You get what I'm saying, folks? It's insane to me that this person is so bad and he finds his way on media and people are calling us saying I'm scared of 2024.

Now, historically speaking, an election year is a fantastic year in the stock market. Stock market does 10 percent returns and historically does almost 12 percent returns, almost 20 percent better. People are freaking out because of this guy. It's insane. By the way, folks, if you're just joining me, you're listening to Gabriel Shaheen, certified financial planner and your host of more knowledge, more wealth here on every weekend talking about all important topics of personal finance.

And it's so important that I discuss these topics with you because you have these economists, this U. S. economist, this published author. Like, okay, I give him credit. Maybe he's a good book writer, but the logic and the content is incorrect, crazy to me and for the media to put them on. I know where they're putting them on because the person who's the most extreme, right?

Harry Dunn thinks there's going to be 86 percent drop in 2024, like Wow, dude, wow, like wow a million dollar portfolio being worth a hundred and forty thousand and it's not just Stock market but crypto market housing market like like this person is just negative and I get it You can focus on negativity But but for the media to put them on TV why because I'm talking about him others are talking about him and people freak out and the media loves a good freak out and this person is Laying it up on a silver platter.

Here are my logics of why it's gonna go bad. Don't get me wrong, I was wrong in 2017, and 16, and 14, and 11, and 2009, and 98, and 93, and 89. And why was 89 wrong? Because he's talking about how good he is at predicting. He can't predict anything! I wouldn't believe the guy if he told me the sun was out right now, and I live in southern California!

So what does this mean for you? When you hear these really smart people making these decisions? Making these comments, making these predictions. What that's telling you is some of the smartest minds, and by no means Harry Dent is a smart mind. But some of the smartest people out there don't know what's going to happen.

You know, there's this funny commercial that came out maybe five to 10 years ago now, and there's this economist and they're this person's introducing, saying this person's a Nobel laureate, Nobel prize winning PhD in this. He has authors here. He has written these paper. He's been, uh, written these books.

He's been interviewed by these people. He's been on this channel, this channel. This is one of the greatest economic minds of our generation. Let's ask him a question. Sir, doctor, professor, what is going to happen with interest rates? Pause. The audience of thousands of people listen. And his response? I don't know.

There you go, the person zooms out. This was a commercial by the way. He goes, there you have it folks. We don't know. Boom. Right on the front screen, 5 percent CD. You lock your money up for 12 years. Excuse me, 12 months. This is the world we live in folks. That was the most honest Commercial I've ever seen in my life, and this is why you have to build something for you, not trying to time something that may quote unquote help you because if you try to time something based on information that other people are looking at, which are wrong more times than not, you're going to lose, and I've just seen it all far too often.

So I comment to you, of course, I've Is if you can't time the markets, if nobody out there has ever been able to consistently do this, you can't beat it, then you join it, but you have to understand what the goals are and how much risk you have to take and what the target rate of return is. And that's where we can help folks.

That's why we're offering a free financial assessment where we can help relate the show to your situation. So you don't have to worry. Markets are going to go up and markets are going to go down simple as that. But how does that relate to you? Are you still going to be comfortable? Are you still going to be able to retire?

Are you still going to be able to collect that check every month? What do you do if you're still working? How should you position your money? Where should you save it? How much you should say? Give us a call. We're offering one to two meetings, one to two hours of our time, folks at no cost. Our phone number is 855 963 2526.

That's 855 96 Falcon. I like the bird. Folks, we're going to go on a quick break and we'll be right back after a few words. 📍 📍

Welcome back folks. This is Gabriel Shane, Certified Financial Planner and your host of more knowledge, more wealth here on every weekend talking about all important topics of personal finance. And today I just spent the first segment talking about Harry Dent and his economic expertise, which although by the way has always been wrong.

Uh, is, is talking about how the market's going to crash in 2024. So we'll see how that goes. Historically speaking, uh, a volatile year, but a good year, better than most years, uh, better than the average 10 percent return happens during an election year. Whether you're Democrat, Republican, whatever the case is, historically, it is.

Better. And so I'm here to tell you that's not a guarantee, but I do know one thing for certain regardless who's president You're still going to go to your mailbox the next day and open up the mail If not the next day, the next week, within a month, um, you're still going to probably have your electricity or gas on, you're still probably going to use water and take a shower, you're probably still going to have a bank account with money in there, you're probably still going to be hungry and even if you lost your appetite because the person you want one didn't win, um, you're probably going to have to eat, probably within a week I would assume, probably going to have to pump gas or electric in your car, electricity in your car, uh, and you're probably going to still go on the internet or on your phone, uh, or watch TV.

Would you agree? The answer is, I sure hope yes, because what I just described here was the normal concept of capitalism and how the world works of economics. Because if you still are going to be spending your money, that money is being circulated through the economy. The baker that you go buy your bread from is going to take that money and continue to buy flour and other tools and employees, pay taxes.

And then that money he makes, he's going to go pay his mortgage, he's going to pay for his utilities, he's going to pay for his car, he's going to pay for his own groceries. This is how the world works. You make money, government takes some, you take some for whatever the goal is, and then you put it back in the economy.

So the idea here that something is going to crash into nothing. It's insane. Is there volatility? Yes. Will there be crashes? Sure. Nobody knows when it's going to be. We all thought COVID was going to be terrible in the year. It was a 20 percent year in 2020. That's a lot of 20s. For a year that was terrible.

Almost dropped 40 percent in a, what, 4 6 week period. So, my comment to you is, number one, don't listen to these fools. Don't listen to these fools, even on our media. They're just trying to bring somebody to scare the bejesus out of you. Because truly, the U. S. economy dropped and went to nothing. Why? What does that mean?

Right? The economy went to nothing. That means no more buys and sells of goods or services. What good is gold at that point? Get what I'm saying? And we are so intertwined in the world now that the world uses our products. The world relies on us and for quite frankly, we rely on the world. It's no longer a U.

S. thing. It's a world thing. I wouldn't be packing and hoarding gold or cash. I'd be hoarding guns and ammunition and booze. That's probably going to be your new future. So before we start talking doomsday, and I'm not here trying to say go buy

I'm here to say, because I'm joking, right? I'm trying to show and expose how ridiculous this concept is, crash and point of no return. How about you build your portfolio where it can withstand these crashes because crashes are normal. Now, quite frankly, this gentleman hasn't Got a crash correct yet. Um, so that's why you shouldn't listen to one person.

I think what you should do is work with a professional Understands the history that's more than a one person team right a one person team is not a team it's one person not two not five not ten people a large team that you can rely on multiple people's experience and Research who are histories of the industry let alone the markets who are true economists Are there going to be crashes?

Sure. To predict such an extreme one in 2024 is nearly impossible and quite frankly, no logic. And meritless. So then the fact that you even consider that has been thinking a few things. Number one, you're probably already being targeted for people that I think you're a doomsday or, which means you're being targeted by gold agencies, annuity insurance company agencies trying to sell you their stuff.

To take advantage of you. Maybe real estate deals. You're being targeted as well. In addition to that, there could be fraud that people are trying to sell you as well, trying to take advantage of you. You need to be careful if you're being targeted and you're searching these things on the website because of the cookies and performance cookies and all that stuff, they know who you are and they have your information and they're going to keep marketing you.

Don't you notice the additional crap that you're getting on your inbox now? Seems to be more now than ever. Aren't there more regulations now than ever? Yeah. But still, you're still getting them. Be disciplined. Stay invested. It's not a binary decision to either be all invested or all in cash. You should have a diversified portfolio where it could be protected with any thing.

By the way, folks, if you're just joining me, you're listening to Gabriel Shaheen certified financial planner and your host of more knowledge, more wealth here on every weekend. And we're talking about all important topics of personal finance. My concept to you, my idea to you is just find a strategy that works where you could take a look.

You remember what happened in 2020. Bye. Bye. How the markets, you saw what happened in 2022. You saw what happened even on those positive years. Take a look at the portfolio since you know what happens during those times. You know how your portfolio did. Were you happy with it? If the answer is no, talk to somebody that can show you a portfolio and tell you this is how it performed on the way down.

This is how it performed on the way up. You can't have your cake and eat it too. If the market drops 20 percent and you drop 10, you're taking 50 percent of the risk of the market, which means if the market goes up 20, you should anticipate making roughly 10, right? You can't have your cake and eat it too.

But if the market average is 10 percent rate of return and you have a diversified portfolio, let's say 60 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds, you should be getting roughly that 7 percent rate of return. Now that's weird. Your math is off, Gabriel. If you're taking 60 percent of the risk, shouldn't I be doing 6 percent not 7%?

The bonds pay as well. It helps give stability in the portfolio and actually gets less risk, but more return, right? 60 percent of the risk, but 70%. 60 percent of the return. These are the concepts that people just aren't aware about because they don't do this on a daily basis. And you can just, that 60 percent stock could be different per person, whether you're investing in all tech, whether it's large caps, mid caps, small caps, growth, or value, it's different per person.

You should look at a portfolio that suits you depending on your age and depending on your goal. I've seen people 90 years old, be a hundred percent in stock. I've seen people 30 year old. That are 60 percent stocks depends on what you are looking to achieve. So my comment with you is talk to a professional, talk to somebody who does this every day.

Talk about your goals. Talk about when you need the money, how much you're saving. If the market's on sale, you shouldn't be saving your money in still a 60 percent 40 percent bond portfolio. You should be a hundred percent in stock. The best part about investing in stock is you get the dollar costs averaging because it goes up and down.

We saw what happened in 2022. You saw what happened last year. Terrible year followed by a great year. 2024, I'll tell you this. Something's gonna happen. I'm more optimistic than pessimistic. Why? Because 1 out of 6, 7 years are bad. So I'm taking my bet on the 85 percent being good, especially with 2022 being bad, 2018 was eh, 2020 was bad in the beginning but finished strong.

So what's my point? Don't outsmart it. Be disciplined, folks. Give us a call. We would love to help. Our phone number is (855) 963-2526. That's 8 5 5 96 Falcon like the Bird, or visit our website and go to falcon wealth planning.com. That's falcon wp.com for short, and you can get a bunch of information and even sign up for a free assessment right online and we can help you.

It doesn't matter where you are throughout the country. Stay disciplined on your investments, folks. I cannot stress that enough. Everything else that you hear it say is noise. Talk on academia. Focus on academia. Don't let your emotions play into outside noise. That's the best advice I can give you for 2024.

That's for your finances. In regards to your personal resolutions, it's the same thing. You want to lose weight? You want to go to the gym? Don't listen to what everybody else is saying. Don't listen to the idea of potentially, uh, you should be doing this workout, you should be eating this. Pay for the advice.

The people that are giving you advice, the things that you're reading that are for free, take it for its face value. Here at Falcon Wealth, we're not a non profit. People pay us for our advice and we have grown significantly because of the value we provide. You can look up our Google reviews. You can take a look at just our growth numbers in general.

You can look at our awards and recognitions. We don't pay for any of those and so the idea for you is on your personal goals even to ignore the noise. Oh, you're going to go to the gym. People are going to judge you. Oh, you're going to start off on weak weight. People are going to judge you. Oh, you're going to, I'm embarrassed to, to, to wear that or do that.

Ignore the noise, focus on you. It's one of the best selfish things that you can do. If you want to save more money, you have to cut something else out. Do it. People are going to judge you for not going out for dinner. Do you want to save that extra 100, 200 a week, a month to save towards your retirement so you can retire an extra one to two years early?

You get what I'm saying? These are the things that let people talk. People talk is distraction. We learned that in middle school and high school. So please focus on you and let us help you with you by offering a free financial assessment. We'll give you one to two meetings, one to two hours of our time folks at no cost.

Our phone number is 855 963 2526. That's 855 96 Falcon. Like the bird. Where we can help put a personal assessment for you to solve your goals, help you achieve your dreams, and more importantly, To avoid the nonsense that you're being told and being sold to folks. That's all I got for you That was a fast fast show and thank you for tuning in with me this weekend You can always talk to myself or any one of my colleagues here at falconwealth planning by giving us a call at 855 963 2526 that's 855 96 falcon Like the bird or visit our website at falconwealthplanning.

com. That's falcon wp. com for short and you can just sign up for a free assessment right there on our front page of our website And you can also go to our knowledge center where you can get this episode any one of our previous episodes from spotify Uh, what else iheartradio and podcast and then that youtube channel our knowledge center is fantastic folks Almost a million views and it's just been fantastic great feedback on that And you can just learn so much from that site.

If there's an inquiry that you want me to put a video on, like I did for Harry Dent, that I ended up talking about a show about it a month later, uh, feel free to reach out. We're happy to help. Send an email to radio at falconwp. com. That's radio at falconwp. com as well. Folks have a fantastic new year. I want you to have a great week and God bless.